Prof. Dr. Kai Carstensen

Chair in Econometrics / Head of the Institute

Raum 405
Phone: +049 431 880-1423
Telefax: +049 431 880-7605

Office hours:

By appointment


For current lectures see Univis

Univis Course


Brief profile:


Kai Carstensen is Professor for Econometrics at Christian Albrechts University in Kiel and External Research Professor at the Ifo Institute in Munich. From 2018 to 2021 he is member of the European Statistical Governance Advisory Council (ESGAB) appointed by the European Parliament. From 2007 to 2014 he was Professor for Economics at Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich and Head of the Business Cycle and Surveys Department of the Ifo Institute where he coordinated the business surveys on which the Ifo Business Climate indicator is based.
He was also in charge of Ifo’s business cycle forecasts and represented the Ifo Institute in the Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, a forecasting group of leading think tanks commissioned by the German Federal Government. He presented the forecasts and policy recommendations in numerous speeches and press interviews. He also took part in official hearings at the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, at the German Bundestag and Bundesrat, in various Parliaments of the Federal States, and at the State Government of Bavaria.
From 2011 to 2013 he was member of the parliamentary commission Wachstum, Wohlstand, Lebensqualität – Wege zu nachhaltigem Wirtschaften und gesellschaftlichem Fortschritt in der Sozialen Marktwirtschaft of the German Bundestag. Kai Carstensen holds a PhD and Habilitation from Christian Albrechts University. His research focuses on empirical macro, business cycle analysis and forecasting. .


  • German Research Foundation (DFG), “Causes and Effects of Time-varying Inflation Uncertainty - Measurement, Evidence, and Policy Implications”, 2009-2013 (with H. Herwartz)
  • Stiftung Geld und Währung, “Transmission und Emission makroökonomischer Schocks durch das Bankensystem”, 2010-2013 (with T. Wollmershäuser et al.)
  • Fritz Thyssen Foundation, “Ökonomische Wirksamkeit der konjunkturstützenden finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen der Jahre 2008 und 2009”, 2013-2015 (with N. Potrafke)
  • Fritz Thyssen Foundation, “Expectation Formation and Uncertainty at the Firm Level – Measurement and Macroeconomic Implications”, 2016-2019 (with R. Bachmann and M. Schneider)

Professional service


Selected publications:

  • Kai Carstensen and Leo Salzmann (2017) The G7 Business Cycle in a Globalized World, Journal of International Money and Finance 73A, 134-161. Working paper version.
  • Kai Carstensen, Steffen Elstner and Georg Paula (2013) How Much Did Oil Market Developments Contribute to the 2009 Recession in Germany?, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 115(3), 695–721.
  • Kai Carstensen, Klaus Wohlrabe and Christina Ziegler (2011) Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 231(1), 82-106.
  • Claudia Buch, Kai Carstensen and Andrea Schertler (2010) Macroeconomic Shocks and Banks' Foreign Assets, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42(1), 171-188.
  • Simon Broda, Kai Carstensen and Marc Paolella (2009) Assessing and Improving the Performance of Nearly Efficient Unit Root Tests in Small Samples, Econometric Reviews 28(5), 1-27.
  • Kai Carstensen and Erich Gundlach (2006) The Primacy of Institutions Reconsidered: Direct Income of Malaria Prevalence, World Bank Economic Review 20(3), 309-339.
  • Kai Carstensen (2006) Stock Market Downswing and the Stability of European Monetary Union Money Demand, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 25(4), 395-402.
  • Kai Carstensen and Farid Toubal (2004) Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Dynamic Panel Analysis, Journal of Comparative Economics 32, 3-22.

Working Papers

  • Kai Carstensen, Markus Heinrich, Magnus Reif and Maik H. Wolters (2017) Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle, CESifo Working Paper No. 6457. Working paper version.

Work in progress

  • Rüdiger Bachmann, Kai Carstensen, Stefan Lautenbacher, Martin Schneider, Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs, current version: Link
  • Kai Carstensen and Thies Rossian, The TFP cycle in the euro area member countries.